Looking at the bigger picture, the current market condition indicates that a medium-term support is in place at 98.97. Price action around that region is settling into a consolidation pattern. But at this point, we’re expecting at least another dip to 61.8% retracement of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 at 94.77 before the trend reverses. However, sustained break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 109.25) will argue that the trend has reversed earlier than we thought and will turn outlook bullish.

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